Rt prospectiva

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<ul><li><p> Escenarios demogrficosDr. Rodolfo TuirnSubsecretario de Educacin SuperiorSecretara de Educacin Pblica </p></li><li><p>Las proyecciones de poblacin son ejercicios analticos de creatividad e imaginacin. Tienen por objeto mirar hacia adelante, atisbar lo que podra traer el provenir ante un nmero limitado de cursos posibles de accin o formas de actuar. </p><p>Estos ejercicios no pretenden adivinar, predecir o profetizar nuestro futuro (en este caso nuestro futuro demogrfico). </p><p>Ms bien, quienes los llevan a cabo estn empeados en imaginar razonadamente cmo podra ser este futuro si ocurriesen una serie de condiciones especficas. </p><p>Prospectiva demogrfica</p></li><li><p>La prospectiva es un valioso insumo para la planeacin y quiz la nica manera de evaluar los costos y consecuencias de cursos alternativos de accin. </p><p>La prospectiva desarrolla nuestra capacidad de anticipar retos y prever oportunidades para evitar que lo venidero se convierta en fatalidad. Con frecuencia, estos instrumentos contribuyen a detonar una compleja gama de respuestas sociales e institucionales dirigidas a evitar las trayectorias definidas como alarmantes o destructivas.</p><p>Prospectiva demogrfica</p></li><li><p>Los ejercicios de prospectiva no pretenden alcanzar una precisin absoluta, sino una previsin razonable, es costumbre construir escenarios adicionales, basados en premisas alternativas sobre la evolucin de los componentes del cambio demogrfico, con el fin de estructurar una posible franja dentro de la cual pueda variar el tamao de la poblacin mexicana futura. Prospectiva demogrfica</p></li><li><p>Evolucin de la poblacin mundial y por continentes</p></li><li><p>Poblacin total mundial, 10,000 a.c.-2,050Source: Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat, World Population Prospects: The 2008 Revision, http://esa.un.org/unpp, Si encapsulramos la historia de la humanidad en el equivalente a un ao calendario, podramos decir que la explosin demogrfica ha ocurrido en el ltimo minuto del mismo</p><p>Grfico1</p><p>1</p><p>5</p><p>5</p><p>5</p><p>7</p><p>14</p><p>27</p><p>50</p><p>100</p><p>162</p><p>150</p><p>170</p><p>190</p><p>190</p><p>190</p><p>200</p><p>207</p><p>220</p><p>226</p><p>254</p><p>301</p><p>360</p><p>400</p><p>360</p><p>443</p><p>350</p><p>425</p><p>545</p><p>470</p><p>600</p><p>629</p><p>813</p><p>1128</p><p>1550</p><p>1750</p><p>1860</p><p>2070</p><p>2300</p><p>2555.974605</p><p>2593.780763</p><p>2635.880621</p><p>2681.233851</p><p>2729.329479</p><p>2780.923093</p><p>2834.07823</p><p>2890.111671</p><p>2946.838447</p><p>2999.390246</p><p>3041.697768</p><p>3082.701189</p><p>3138.922062</p><p>3208.676975</p><p>3280.050222</p><p>3349.287332</p><p>3419.728217</p><p>3489.679443</p><p>3561.729216</p><p>3636.566653</p><p>3711.961664</p><p>3789.539409</p><p>3865.80406</p><p>3941.550996</p><p>4016.055456</p><p>4088.611586</p><p>4159.762924</p><p>4231.510486</p><p>4303.133652</p><p>4377.496958</p><p>4452.547522</p><p>4528.882162</p><p>4608.681758</p><p>4690.277509</p><p>4770.468296</p><p>4852.05194</p><p>4935.873592</p><p>5022.02311</p><p>5108.859812</p><p>5195.713196</p><p>5283.687429</p><p>5367.185126</p><p>5451.671517</p><p>5534.137903</p><p>5615.310526</p><p>5696.676739</p><p>5776.856845</p><p>5855.086722</p><p>5932.090951</p><p>6008.254795</p><p>6083.55022</p><p>6159.24251</p><p>6234.361771</p><p>6308.516183</p><p>6382.433547</p><p>6456.44308</p><p>6530.984631</p><p>6606.214786</p><p>6681.112529</p><p>6755.987239</p><p>6830.586985</p><p>6905.172554</p><p>6979.312828</p><p>7053.079305</p><p>7126.724753</p><p>7200.008584</p><p>7272.849777</p><p>7345.201125</p><p>7416.852578</p><p>7487.663656</p><p>7557.514266</p><p>7626.477056</p><p>7694.592508</p><p>7761.728812</p><p>7827.803562</p><p>7892.758722</p><p>7956.66716</p><p>8019.596128</p><p>8081.508492</p><p>8142.383845</p><p>8202.205367</p><p>8261.039699</p><p>8318.955615</p><p>8375.945217</p><p>8431.992573</p><p>8487.066951</p><p>8541.209793</p><p>8594.470749</p><p>8646.831011</p><p>8698.2653</p><p>8748.743446</p><p>8798.30338</p><p>8846.986545</p><p>8894.758313</p><p>8941.579812</p><p>8987.41854</p><p>9032.303796</p><p>9076.26803</p><p>9119.291753</p><p>9161.358865</p><p>9202.458484</p><p>Population</p><p>Millones de habitantes</p><p>Hoja1</p><p>YearPopulation</p><p>-100001</p><p>-80005</p><p>-65005</p><p>-50005</p><p>-40007</p><p>-300014</p><p>-200027</p><p>-100050</p><p>-500100</p><p>-400162</p><p>-200150</p><p>1170</p><p>200190</p><p>400190</p><p>500190</p><p>600200</p><p>700207</p><p>800220</p><p>900226</p><p>1000254</p><p>1100301</p><p>1200360</p><p>1250400</p><p>1300360</p><p>1340443</p><p>1400350</p><p>1500425</p><p>1600545</p><p>1650470</p><p>1700600</p><p>1750629</p><p>1800813</p><p>18501128</p><p>19001550</p><p>19101750</p><p>19201860</p><p>19302070</p><p>19402300</p><p>19502556</p><p>19512594</p><p>19522636</p><p>19532681</p><p>19542729</p><p>19552781</p><p>19562834</p><p>19572890</p><p>19582947</p><p>19592999</p><p>19603042</p><p>19613083</p><p>19623139</p><p>19633209</p><p>19643280</p><p>19653349</p><p>19663420</p><p>19673490</p><p>19683562</p><p>19693637</p><p>19703712</p><p>19713790</p><p>19723866</p><p>19733942</p><p>19744016</p><p>19754089</p><p>19764160</p><p>19774232</p><p>19784303</p><p>19794377</p><p>19804453</p><p>19814529</p><p>19824609</p><p>19834690</p><p>19844770</p><p>19854852</p><p>19864936</p><p>19875022</p><p>19885109</p><p>19895196</p><p>19905284</p><p>19915367</p><p>19925452</p><p>19935534</p><p>19945615</p><p>19955697</p><p>19965777</p><p>19975855</p><p>19985932</p><p>19996008</p><p>20006084</p><p>20016159</p><p>20026234</p><p>20036309</p><p>20046382</p><p>20056456</p><p>20066531</p><p>20076606</p><p>20086681</p><p>20096756</p><p>20106831</p><p>20116905</p><p>20126979</p><p>20137053</p><p>20147127</p><p>20157200</p><p>20167273</p><p>20177345</p><p>20187417</p><p>20197488</p><p>20207558</p><p>20217626</p><p>20227695</p><p>20237762</p><p>20247828</p><p>20257893</p><p>20267957</p><p>20278020</p><p>20288082</p><p>20298142</p><p>20308202</p><p>20318261</p><p>20328319</p><p>20338376</p><p>20348432</p><p>20358487</p><p>20368541</p><p>20378594</p><p>20388647</p><p>20398698</p><p>20408749</p><p>20418798</p><p>20428847</p><p>20438895</p><p>20448942</p><p>20458987</p><p>20469032</p><p>20479076</p><p>20489119</p><p>20499161</p><p>20509202</p><p>Para cambiar el tamao del rango de datos del grfico, arrastre la esquina inferior derecha del rango.</p></li><li><p>Poblacin mundial por continente, 1750-1950Source: Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat, World Population Prospects: The 2008 Revision, http://esa.un.org/unpp, La mayor proporcin de la poblacin mundial hasta 1950 estaba en Asia y Europa</p><p>Grfico1</p><p>106000502000163000180002000791000</p><p>107000635000203000310002000978000</p><p>1110008090002760006400020001262000</p><p>13300094700040800015600060001650000</p><p>2212141398488547403338713128122518630</p><p>2467461542000575184377681142652755876</p><p>2773981674000601401413455158882982142</p><p>3137441899424634026470022176573334873</p><p>3572832143118655855516793194433692492</p><p>4081602397512675542565331215644068109</p><p>4696182632335692431617469228284434681</p><p>5418142887552706009670925246784830978</p><p>6224433167807721582725074266875263593</p><p>7074623430000727405780537289245674328</p><p>7956713679737727986836144310436070581</p><p>8879643917508724722890437329986453629</p><p>972752.3774053868.076731682.934916454.28434375.0936709132.764</p><p>10330434166741732759940308358386908689</p><p>frica</p><p>Asia</p><p>Europa</p><p>Amrica</p><p>Oceana</p><p>Total</p><p>Millones de habitantes</p><p>Hoja1</p><p>AofricaAsiaEuropaAmricaOceanaTotal</p><p>1750106,000502,000163,00018,0002,000791,000</p><p>1800107,000635,000203,00031,0002,000978,000</p><p>1850111,000809,000276,00064,0002,0001,262,000</p><p>1900133,000947,000408,000156,0006,0001,650,000</p><p>1950221,2141,398,488547,403338,71312,8122,518,630</p><p>1955246,7461,542,000575,184377,68114,2652,755,876</p><p>1960277,3981,674,000601,401413,45515,8882,982,142</p><p>1965313,7441,899,424634,026470,02217,6573,334,873</p><p>1970357,2832,143,118655,855516,79319,4433,692,492</p><p>1975408,1602,397,512675,542565,33121,5644,068,109</p><p>1980469,6182,632,335692,431617,46922,8284,434,681</p><p>1985541,8142,887,552706,009670,92524,6784,830,978</p><p>1990622,4433,167,807721,582725,07426,6875,263,593</p><p>1995707,4623,430,000727,405780,53728,9245,674,328</p><p>2000795,6713,679,737727,986836,14431,0436,070,581</p><p>2005887,9643,917,508724,722890,43732,9986,453,629</p><p>2008972,7524,053,868731,683916,45434,3756,709,133</p><p>20101,033,0434,166,741732,759940,30835,8386,908,689</p><p>Para cambiar el tamao del rango de datos del grfico, arrastre la esquina inferior derecha del rango.</p></li><li><p>Transicin demogrfica y evolucin reciente de la poblacin</p></li><li><p>Transicin demogrfica mundial, 1950-2050Source: Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat, World Population Prospects: The 2008 Revision, http://esa.un.org/unpp, La transicin demogrfica en el mundo se ha venido produciendo de manera muy rpida</p><p>Grfico1</p><p>37.219.5</p><p>35.317.3</p><p>34.915.5</p><p>33.413.2</p><p>30.811.4</p><p>28.410.7</p><p>27.910.3</p><p>27.39.7</p><p>24.79.4</p><p>22.58.9</p><p>21.28.6</p><p>20.38.5</p><p>19.48.3</p><p>18.28.3</p><p>16.98.3</p><p>15.88.5</p><p>158.8</p><p>14.59.2</p><p>149.6</p><p>13.410</p><p>Natalidad</p><p>Mortalidad</p><p>Tasa bruta de natalidad</p><p>Tasa bruta de mortalidad</p><p>Tasas (por mil habitantes)</p><p>Hoja1</p><p>PeriodoTasa bruta de natalidadTasa bruta de mortalidad</p><p>1950-195537.219.5</p><p>1955-196035.317.3</p><p>1960-196534.915.5</p><p>1965-197033.413.2</p><p>1970-197530.811.4</p><p>1975-198028.410.7</p><p>1980-198527.910.3</p><p>1985-199027.39.7</p><p>1990-199524.79.4</p><p>1995-200022.58.9</p><p>2000-200521.28.6</p><p>2005-201020.38.5</p><p>2010-201519.48.3</p><p>2015-202018.28.3</p><p>2020-202516.98.3</p><p>2025-203015.88.5</p><p>2030-2035158.8</p><p>2035-204014.59.2</p><p>2040-2045149.6</p><p>2045-205013.410</p></li><li><p>Poblacin total mundial, 1950-2050Source: Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat, World Population Prospects: The 2008 Revision, http://esa.un.org/unpp, El tamao de la poblacin mundial se ha triplicado en los ltimos 60 aos y en los siguientes 40 aos aumentar ms de 2 mil millones de habitantes</p><p>Grfico1</p><p>2529346</p><p>2763453</p><p>3023358</p><p>3331670</p><p>3685777</p><p>4061317</p><p>4437609</p><p>4846247</p><p>5290452</p><p>5713073</p><p>6115367</p><p>6512276</p><p>6908688</p><p>7302186</p><p>7674833</p><p>8011533</p><p>8308895</p><p>8570570</p><p>8801196</p><p>8996344</p><p>9149984</p><p>Population</p><p>Millones de habitantes</p><p>Hoja1</p><p>YearPopulation</p><p>19502529346</p><p>19552763453</p><p>19603023358</p><p>19653331670</p><p>19703685777</p><p>19754061317</p><p>19804437609</p><p>19854846247</p><p>19905290452</p><p>19955713073</p><p>20006115367</p><p>20056512276</p><p>20106908688</p><p>20157302186</p><p>20207674833</p><p>20258011533</p><p>20308308895</p><p>20358570570</p><p>20408801196</p><p>20458996344</p><p>20509149984</p><p>Para cambiar el tamao del rango de datos del grfico, arrastre la esquina inferior derecha del rango.</p></li><li><p>Poblacin mundial por continente, 1950-2050Source: Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat, World Population Prospects: The 2008 Revision, http://esa.un.org/unpp, Asia sigue siendo el continente con una proporcin mayor de la poblacin mundial, seguida ahora por Africa </p><p>Grfico1</p><p>106000502000163000180002000791000</p><p>107000635000203000310002000978000</p><p>1110008090002760006400020001262000</p><p>13300094700040800015600060001650000</p><p>2212141398488547403338713128122518630</p><p>2467461542000575184377681142652755876</p><p>2773981674000601401413455158882982142</p><p>3137441899424634026470022176573334873</p><p>3572832143118655855516793194433692492</p><p>4081602397512675542565331215644068109</p><p>4696182632335692431617469228284434681</p><p>5418142887552706009670925246784830978</p><p>6224433167807721582725074266875263593</p><p>7074623430000727405780537289245674328</p><p>7956713679737727986836144310436070581</p><p>8879643917508724722890437329986453629</p><p>972752.3774053868.076731682.934916454.28434375.0936709132.764</p><p>10330434166741732759940308358386908689</p><p>10565274212244733208949750362926988021</p><p>10803244257532733549959103367467067254</p><p>11043814302470733786968351372007146188</p><p>11286374346879733933977470376537224572</p><p>11530384390603734000986442381047302187</p><p>11775574433579733985995258385537378932</p><p>120217744757587338801003919389997454733</p><p>122687045170177336771012419394447529427</p><p>125160845572197333701020756398877602840</p><p>127636945962567329521028927403297674833</p><p>130113246340637324221036925407707745312</p><p>132588646706127317841044746412097814237</p><p>135063747058777310411052380416467881581</p><p>137540047398487302001059820420787947346</p><p>140018447725237292641067055425078011533</p><p>142498348038877282381074082429308074120</p><p>144978648339417271261080897433498135099</p><p>147458948627237259381087500437628194512</p><p>149939148902937246841093888441708252426</p><p>152418749167017233731100063445728308896</p><p>154897049419557220111106020449678363923</p><p>157373049660747206021111760453568417522</p><p>159845849891417191561117275457398469769</p><p>162314650112557176821122565461158520763</p><p>164778150324897161901127625464858570570</p><p>167235250528727146831132454468498619210</p><p>169684450723897131631137054472068666656</p><p>172123550910077116271141429475578712855</p><p>174549951086697100701145583479028757723</p><p>176961551253267084891149524482428801196</p><p>179356251409497068821153255485758843223</p><p>181732251555277052481156776489038883776</p><p>184087951690517035881160088492268922832</p><p>186421851815137019031163192495438960369</p><p>188731951928907001911166090498548996344</p><p>191016352031436984491168786501619030702</p><p>193272652122136966721171282504629063355</p><p>195498352200276948521173587507589094207</p><p>197690752264886929811175706510509123132</p><p>199846652314856910481177648513389149985</p><p>frica</p><p>Asia</p><p>Europa</p><p>Amrica</p><p>Oceana</p><p>Total</p><p>Millones de habitantes</p><p>Hoja1</p><p>AofricaAsiaEuropaAmricaOceanaTotal</p><p>1750106,000502,000163,00018,0002,000791,000</p><p>1800107,000635,000203,00031,0002,000978,000</p><p>1850111,000809,000276,00064,0002,0001,262,000</p><p>1900133,000947,000408,000156,0006,0001,650,000</p><p>1950221,2141,398,488547,403338,71312,8122,518,630</p><p>1955246,7461,542,000575,184377,68114,2652,755,876</p><p>1960277,3981,674,000601,401413,45515,8882,982,142</p><p>1965313,7441,899,424634,026470,02217,6573,334,873</p><p>1970357,2832,143,118655,855516,79319,4433,692,492</p><p>1975408,1602,397,512675,542565,33121,5644,068,109</p><p>1980469,6182,632,335692,431617,46922,8284,434,681</p><p>1985541,8142,887,552706,009670,92524,6784,830,978</p><p>1990622,4433,167,807721,582725,07426,6875,263,593</p><p>1995707,4623,430,000727,405780,53728,9245,674,328</p><p>2000795,6713,679,737727,986836,14431,0436,070,581</p><p>2005887,9643,917,508724,722890,43732,9986,453,629</p><p>2008972,7524,053,868731,683916,45434,3756,709,133</p><p>20101,033,0434,166,741732,759940,30835,8386,908,689</p><p>20111,056,5274,212,244733,208949,75036,2926,988,021</p><p>20121,080,3244,257,532733,549959,10336,7467,067,254</p><p>20131,104,3814,302,470733,786968,35137,2007,146,188</p><p>20141,128,6374,346,879733,933977,47037,6537,224,572</p><p>20151,153,0384,390,603734,000986,44238,1047,302,187</p><p>20161,177,5574,433,579733,985995,25838,5537,378,932</p><p>20171,202,1774,475,758733,8801,003,91938,9997,454,733</p><p>20181,226,8704,517,017733,6771,012,41939,4447,529,427</p><p>20191,251,6084,557,219733,3701,020,75639,8877,602,840</p><p>20201,276,3694,596,256732,9521,028,92740,3297,674,833</p><p>20211,301,1324,634,063732,4221,036,92540,7707,745,312</p><p>20221,325,8864,670,612731,7841,044,74641,2097,814,237</p><p>20231,350,6374,705,877731,0411,052,38041,6467,881,581</p><p>20241,375,4004,739,848730,2001,059,82042,0787,947,346</p><p>20251,400,1844,772,523729,2641,067,05542,5078,011,533</p><p>20261,424,9834,803,887728,2381,074,08242,9308,074,120</p><p>20271,449,7864,833,941727,1261,080,89743,3498,135,099</p><p>20281,474,5894,862,723725,9381,087,50043,7628,194,512</p><p>20291,499,3914,890,293724,6841,093,88844,1708,252,426</p><p>20301,524,1874,916,701723,3731,100,06344,5728,308,896</p><p>20311,548,9704,941,955722,0111,106,02044,9678,363,923</p><p>20321,573,7304,966,074720,6021,111,76045,3568,417,522</p><p>20331,598,4584,989,141719,1561,117,27545,7398,469,769</p><p>20341,623,1465,011,255717,6821,122,56546,1158,520,763</p><p>20351,647,7815,032,489716,1901,127,62546,4858,570,570</p><p>20361,672,3525,052,872714,6831,132,45446,8498,619,210</p><p>20371,696,8445,072,389713,1631,137,05447,2068,666,656</p><p>20381,721,2355,091,007711,6271,141,42947,5578,712,855</p><p>20391,745,4995,108,669710,0701,145,58347,9028,757,723</p><p>20401,769,6155,125,326708,4891,149,52448,2428,801,196</p><p>20411,793,5625,140,949706,8821,153,25548,5758,843,223</p><p>20421,817,3225,155,527705,2481,156,77648,9038,883,776</p><p>20431,840,8795,169,051703,5881,160,08849,2268,922,832</p><p>20441,864,2185,181,513701,9031,163,19249,5438,960,369</p><p>20451,887,3195,192,890700,1911,166,09049,8548,996,344</p><p>20461,910,1635,203,143698,4491,168,78650,1619,030,702</p><p>20471,932,7265,212,213696,6721,171,28250,4629,063,355</p><p>20481,954,9835,220,027694,8521,173,58750,7589,094,207</p><p>20491,976,9075,226,488692,9811,175,70651,0509,123,132</p><p>20501,998,4665,231,485691,0481,177,64851,3389,149,985</p><p>Para cambiar el tamao del rango de datos del grfico, arrastre la esquina inferior derecha del rango.</p></li><li><p>La transicin demogrfica en Mxico</p></li><li><p>Mxico: Poblacin total, 1790-2010Fuente: estimaciones del Consejo Nacional de poblacinLa poblacin mexicana permaneci por debajo de los 20 millones de habitantes hasta 1940 y en los siguientes 60 aos multiplic por 5 su tamao</p><p>Grfico1</p><p>4636074</p><p>5764731</p><p>6122354</p><p>6204000</p><p>8000000</p><p>7996000</p><p>6382284</p><p>7734292</p><p>7843132</p><p>7004140</p><p>7015509</p><p>7000000</p><p>7500000</p><p>7661919</p><p>7853395</p><p>7859564</p><p>82...</p></li></ul>